The way the civil war started from the unification of the two Yemenis! Why is Saudi Arabia now proposing a ceasefire?
The separatists in southern Yemen want to leave Yemen and re-establish a separate state. Saudi Arabia has also called for a ceasefire to end the recent civil war. So a new discussion has started about Yemen. We need to go back in time to understand the long-running separatist movement in southern Yemen, the civil war between Houthi rebels in Mansour Hadi, and the root causes of the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Location on the map
If you look at the map, you will see the Red Sea to the west of Yemen and the Gulf of Aden to the south. It is isolated from the African continent by the Bab El Mandeb method. The country is bordered by Saudi Arabia to the north and northeast and Oman to the east. It is because of this geographical location that Yemen today recognizes geopolitics.
★ How South Yemen was created ★
Yemen was originally divided into North Yemen and South Yemen. In 1839, Britain occupied the southern part of Aden or Yemen on the pretext of stealing the wreckage of a British ship near the Gulf of Aden. Since then, southern Yemen has been under British rule. South Yemen gained independence on November 30, 1986. Marxists emerged in southern Yemen. The National Liberation Front led the country first. It later took the form of the Yemen Socialist Party. During this time, southern Yemen received significant amounts of foreign aid and other support from the Soviet Union.
Northern Yemen was created after the fall of the Ottoman Empire
On the other hand, the northern part of Yemen bordering Saudi Arabia was under the Ottoman rule from 1517 to 1917. Which was known as North Yemen. In 1924, North Yemen was liberated from the Ottoman Turkish Empire through the Laos Treaty. A republican government was established in northern Yemen, including tribal representation. That is, the government was formed with representatives from each tribe or clan.
★ Cairo Agreement *
In October 1982, fighting broke out between North and South Yemen. Saudi Arabia supported northern Yemen and the Soviet Union supported southern Yemen. The Cairo Agreement was signed on 28 October 1972 to unify the two states.
The way the two Yemenis merge is
After the discovery of oil in the border areas of the two countries in the late 1980s, the two sides became interested in merging.
Shortly after the unification of East and West Germany in the 1990s, North Yemen (Arab Republic) and South Yemen (People's Republic of Yemen) merged to form the Yemeni Democracy.
Sanaa, the former capital of northern Yemen, was made the capital. The national anthem of the South is defined as the national anthem of the state. The new state accepts all the agreements and obligations of the former states. But that did not avoid division in the country. There were sectarian conflicts; Which further weakens the country economically. This southern Yemen is now trying to come out again and form an independent state.
The civil war from Shia-Sunni conflict
The country is home to 80 percent Sunnis and 40 percent Shiites. In the north of Yemen live the Shiite Zaidi community, known as the Houthis. On the other hand, the Sunni group was in power as always; Which the Shiites never well accepted. As a result, a civil war broke out in Yemen in 1994.
Elections are held
In 1999, elections were held for the first time in Yemen. Ali Abdullah Saleh came to power in Yemen through direct elections. Saleh ruled the country for 33 long years. When the Arab Spring began in Tunisia in 2011, its wave came to Yemen. The anti-Saleh movement began in Yemen, as did the anti-authoritarian movements in other Arab countries.
★ Saleh's resignation in the cannon of the movement and the assumption of power by Mansoor Hadi as Vice President
A movement was started in Yemen to remove Ali Abdullah Saleh. In the face of the movement, Saleh later handed over power to Vice President Mansour Hadi. The crisis in Yemen has been going on since then. Then the poorest country in the Arab world became poorer. Hadi was interrupted by former President Saleh when he began to focus on running the country. The Houthis, who once played a key role in the movement against former President Saleh, have again sided with Saleh against Hadi. Besides, a part of Hadi's administration was still loyal to Saleh. Even the security forces are loyal to Saleh. So the Hadi administration became virtually weak and Hadi and his cabinet resigned.
Huthis occupy power
In 2014, the Houthis seized the northern part of the country, including the capital Sanaa. But the four Sunni major provinces in the south did not recognize Houthi rule. Hadi fled Sanaa and took up residence in Aden, withdrawing his resignation and re-establishing himself as president. The country is again divided into two parts. The Shiite-majority north is controlled by the Houthis, and the Sunni-majority south is controlled by legitimate President Hadi. Now the Houthis want Shiite dominance in the country and the Sunnis want the Hadi government.
Infiltration of Al Qaeda and IS
And taking advantage of the country's volatile situation, two Islamic militant groups (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Islamic State) have infiltrated the country. Al Qaeda in Yemen is thought to be the world's deadliest militant group. The whole world is now divided into two factions, one for the Houthis and one for the Hadi. In fact, everyone here is looking after everyone's interests.
The Western world is also paying more attention to its geopolitical and diplomatic interests. No one is thinking about the helpless people of the country. Eight Sunni countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Sudan), including Saudi Arabia, are in favor of a legitimate government in Yemen. In this case, the West, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France support them. Shiite-majority Iran and Hezbollah have sided with the Houthi rebels. There is currently a proxy war between Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shiite-majority Iran. So their retrogressive position in Yemen is also seen by many as a struggle for regional power.
"Why is the United States supporting Saudi Arabia?"
01. You know that the United States earns the most foreign exchange by exporting weapons. And for the past few years, Saudi Arabia has been the largest market for that US weapon. Saudi Arabia is buying modern weapons from the United States and using them against the Houthis.
02. If the Saudis do not get US help and help Mansour Hadi, the Houthis will seize power in Yemen with the help of Iran. Due to which Iran will have influence in the Gulf of Aden.
Saudi attack on Yemen
In March 2015, Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen in support of Hadi. On October 6, 2016, 140 people were killed and 600 others were injured in an attack by the Saudi alliance in Sanaa. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly accused Iran of using the port of Hodeidah to supply weapons to Houthi rebels. Iran has denied Saudi Arabia's allegations since the beginning. On the contrary, Western countries are being criticized for selling arms to Saudi Arabia.
Why is Saudi supporting Mansour Hadi?
First, the Houthis live in northern Yemen, close to the Saudi border. So they are in power, in fact, a threat to Saudi security. Second, the Gulf of Aden is important for trade. So, from here, Saudi Arabia wants to take over the dominance of this region by reducing the dominance of Iran and putting Mansour Hadi in power.
Why did the Saudis suddenly offer a ceasefire in Yemen?
Saudi Arabia has proposed a new peace deal, including a ceasefire in Yemen. The announcement was made recently by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. His proposal calls for an UN-sponsored ceasefire across Yemen and the opening of the Sana'a airport, as well as the Hudaydah seaport for fuel and food imports. However, the Yemeni rebels have rejected the Saudi offer.
About six years ago, a Saudi-led military coalition launched an "unequal" war in Yemen to crack down on Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Thousands of innocent Yemenis have lost their lives in the fighting, and hundreds of thousands have been displaced. Numerous houses and important infrastructures have been destroyed. According to the United Nations, Yemen has created the worst humanitarian crisis in the world in decades. Eighty percent of the country's population is in need of emergency relief, the Yemeni rebels said. In this situation, the question has arisen as to why Saudi Arabia wants a sudden ceasefire.
In my opinion, there are three main reasons behind the Saudi government's retreat.
01. Saudi Arabia is under pressure not to side with its biggest ally, former US President Donald Trump. The Biden administration has suspended arms sales to Saudi Arabia since coming to power.
02. Countries such as Italy and South Africa have also stopped selling arms to Saudi Arabia, accusing it of creating a humanitarian crisis in Yemen. As a result, it has become almost impossible for Saudi Arabia to continue its military operations in Yemen without strong support from abroad.
03. After six years of fighting, the Saudi government may realize that it is not easy to suppress Yemeni rebels in this way. The Houthi rebels, who have been under attack for so long, have recently launched counter-attacks in several key Saudi locations, including Riyadh. Moreover, the cost of the war for Saudi Arabia has risen sharply.
But soon after the ceasefire was offered, the Saudis resumed airstrikes in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa. Saudi Arabia is verbally proposing a ceasefire and is also carrying out airstrikes. So Huthi rebels say such a Saudi offer is nothing new. So it is uncertain whether the civil war in Yemen will end at all !!